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Hurricane Ian is forecasted to be a Category 4 storm in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico as early as late Tuesday.
TimDeegan, Robert Speta, Amelia Henderson, Lewis Turner
10:30 AM EDT September 26, 2022
7:48 PM EDT September 26, 2022
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Hurricane Ian: At this time, the largest impacts look to be in the Tampa area as the right front of the storm is expected to pass over the metro area Wednesday bringing a 5 to 10 ft+ surge and winds over 100 mph possibly. Ahead of the storm the First Coast and all of Florida for that matter will see prolonged rainfall creating a large flood threat and gusty winds with a chance of tornadoes.
For the First Coast: The forecast is coming into better focus. For the First Coast, we are confident the storm will interact with a front to the producing a steady onshore wind and rain starting Wednesday and ending Friday.
Wednesday the rain will begin to build in from the South.
As the coastal winds set up it will bring gusty conditions along coastal areas with the risk of beach erosion, rip currents, and high surf ahead of and during the storm. Plan on winds of 25-40 out of the northeast with isolated gusts to 65 later Thursday into early Friday.
The worst of the weather will be on 1am Thursday – 7am Friday with a combination of heavy rain, onshore wind, and high river levels. Thus, the threat of river flooding along the St. Johns and its tributaries is possible.
>>> EN ESPAÑOL: LOS TROPICOS: Ian subió a huracán de categoría 1 cerca de las Islas Caimán
Flooding from this threat will be our highest risk vs. flooding at the beach from the surge only. This means for areas inland away from the coast as well in the city and poor drainage areas we could see water pool up and cause flooding from the heavy rainfall. Especially in those areas where we may see banding set up creating a “training effect” of rain showers.
The models are coming in to focus 72 hours out but are struggling the 5-day outlook as the storm starts to interact with the front moving in across the Southeast.
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Meteorologist Robert Speta Explains what the Spaghetti plots mean and how they should be used when making a forecast.
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