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Tropical Depression 9 just upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian Friday evening. It has been a busy few days in the tropics as Fiona, a Category 3 storm heads to Canada, and Tropical Storm Hermine formed just off the West Coast of Africa. Read more about them here.
In the meantime, the focus at the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking center will be Tropical Storm Ian.
Ian was still able to reach tropical storm status while enduring a bit of wind shear south of Hispaniola, which means this is a hardy storm. Over the weekend, Ian will be entering an even better environment for development once the storm gets south of Jamaica and/or Cuba. This is where the storm will find an environment with relatively low wind shear and very warm ocean waters. This will give the storm the opportunity to intensify quickly to a hurricane. The environment is so conducive for tropical development that a major hurricane (Cat 3 or higher) is forecast by next week.
The latest forecast cone has the storm moving through the western side of Cuba. Although there are some areas of higher terrain in this part of Cuba, it is not where the tallest mountains are.
Furthermore, it is the narrowest part of Cuba which will minimize land interaction. For the aforementioned reasons, the storm will have a chance to maintain its strength north of Cuba.
If the storm is able to avoid a lot of land interaction, and slide through the Yucatan Channel, a stronger storm may be possible.
However, just because it is farther west, does not mean Florida is in the clear. The jet stream is forecast to pull the storm north into the Gulf and SWFL may be stuck dealing with the stronger side (the east side) of the hurricane.
It is important to remember the cone only represents where the center of low pressure will go. Given the graphic below, there is an equal chance that the center of the storm may be south of the Florida Panhandle as it is near the Bahamas come Wednesday at 2 PM.
For this reason, it is nearly impossible to tell the magnitude of the impacts we will have here in SWFL. It is too early to know how much rain, wind, and/or storm surge we will have next week.
It is clear this will be a significant storm for some parts of the eastern Gulf, but the specifics aren’t there yet.
Over the weekend, it is a good idea to refresh your hurricane kit and get a plan together with your family. Stay tuned to NBC2 on air and online as we gather more information.
You can brush up on your tropical weather knowledge using our NBC2 Hurricane Guide+ here.
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